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Another point of distinction - as far as I understand, AOL does not have the rights to sell their traffic directly to anything other than a list of 2000 top advertisers as determined by an independent 3rd party.
Google CPC's will not be impacted much, if at all, in the short term, advertiser adoption (even among those 2000) will happen over a period of 3-9 months because of work loads, lack of ROI understanding, and AOL's newness to search ad sales - and IMO because of the AOL/Google deal structure not making it easy to launch a la Site Targeting or Content bidding.
Markets want to be efficient, and this is AOL being sick of seeing their CPC's diluted by G's lower-quality [and IMO non-search] search distribution partners. Good advertisers who adopt AOL directly will be able to profitably spend more overall in search, Google will see a little bit less spend overall, and perhaps most importantly, many of those 2000 advertisers will opt out of G's search network once AOL's in place - at least until/unless G allows Search Network-specific bidding.
Now I remember why I enjoyed following your blog so much... Somehow I dropped the Vinny-feed after I switched to Google Reader.
Love the analytic thinking, simple explanations and conclusive round-up.
Two other posts of interest relating to this topic, which would add some additional strategic background logic (in my opinion, anyway!):
(MSN/Yahoo/Google)
http://www.vinnylingham.com/2006/05/the-clash-o...
(Return on Effort)
http://www.vinnylingham.com/2007/03/return-on-e...
I don't think it ever will be. AOL's deal with Google gives it the right to sell to 1000-2000 top advertisers (as defined by a 3rd party I believe), and no one else. So either you're on the list or you're not.